Democrats Can't Keep Writing Off Warren County!
Warren County exemplifies the problem for Kirsten Gillibrand (or whatever Democrat ends up winning the primary) this year. It is the second most populated county within the 20th Congressional District, but yet it is arguably the most Republican. Registered Republicans make up 51% of the population and Democrats only make up 23% (a larger gap than any other county).
Despite Bush's flailing poll numbers, "Freedom Isn't Free" and "Bush Cheney '04" stickers can still be seen on the back of pickup trucks everywhere.
Here are other depressing statistics about Warren:
Democrats only hold 14 elected offices in the ENTIRE county!
Democrats only hold 3 posts on the County Board of Supervisors!
Only 4 towns in the entire county have a Democratic officer holder in their town (Glens Falls, Bolton, Queensbury, Haugue); In every other town (the majority) the Republicans hold every single elected office
(Warren as you can obviously see is almost a county under one-party rule)
Sweeney's results in Warren County in 2004
The map above shows Sweeney's results in Warren in 2004 - as you can obviously see, the entire county was asplash in Crimson Red two years ago. Doris Kelly did not win (or even come close) to winning one town. In fact, Sweeney did not get less than 60% in a SINGLE town, and in most towns (including Queensbury - the largest populated town in the county) he got more than 70%. Quite a number of towns Sweeney got close to getting 80%.
Presidential results in Warren County in 2004
While not as bad as Sweeney's map, this map is still quite depressing. Kerry only won Glens Falls. Bush won everything else and (like Sweeney) won the county by a landslide.
The bottom line is that it seems like the Democrats are once again writing off Warren County this year like they have been for decades. Gillibrand has only visited Warren once or twice. It's becoming more and more obvious that the State Democratic Committee is basically going to hand this largely populated county to Sweeney again. Gillibrand has been see a lot in the southern portion of the district (below Albany) which has been more hospitable to Democrats in recent years. The Democrats/Gillibrand are hoping they can get a big enough turnout in the South (Dutchess, Columbia, Delaware) to offset the North. However, the major problem is that there aren't enough votes down there. Warren is the second most populated county in the district. (Saratoga is the largest and also hasn't been too hospitable to Democrats) There is simply no way you can win without making a serious dent in Sweeney's base up in the north.
Sweeney has already been making many trips and appearances to Warren County. He knows the Democrats/Gillibrand aren't spending much time up there and is already mobilizing his North Country base. If you read any of the North Country papers, Sweeney face is constantly in the papers, but you rarely ever here any mention of Gillibrand (or the other Democratic opponents).
I hope between now and November the Democrats finally become aware of their North Country problem and do something to erode away at Sweeney's base in Warren County.
Despite Bush's flailing poll numbers, "Freedom Isn't Free" and "Bush Cheney '04" stickers can still be seen on the back of pickup trucks everywhere.
Here are other depressing statistics about Warren:
Democrats only hold 14 elected offices in the ENTIRE county!
Democrats only hold 3 posts on the County Board of Supervisors!
Only 4 towns in the entire county have a Democratic officer holder in their town (Glens Falls, Bolton, Queensbury, Haugue); In every other town (the majority) the Republicans hold every single elected office
(Warren as you can obviously see is almost a county under one-party rule)
Sweeney's results in Warren County in 2004
The map above shows Sweeney's results in Warren in 2004 - as you can obviously see, the entire county was asplash in Crimson Red two years ago. Doris Kelly did not win (or even come close) to winning one town. In fact, Sweeney did not get less than 60% in a SINGLE town, and in most towns (including Queensbury - the largest populated town in the county) he got more than 70%. Quite a number of towns Sweeney got close to getting 80%.
Presidential results in Warren County in 2004
While not as bad as Sweeney's map, this map is still quite depressing. Kerry only won Glens Falls. Bush won everything else and (like Sweeney) won the county by a landslide.
The bottom line is that it seems like the Democrats are once again writing off Warren County this year like they have been for decades. Gillibrand has only visited Warren once or twice. It's becoming more and more obvious that the State Democratic Committee is basically going to hand this largely populated county to Sweeney again. Gillibrand has been see a lot in the southern portion of the district (below Albany) which has been more hospitable to Democrats in recent years. The Democrats/Gillibrand are hoping they can get a big enough turnout in the South (Dutchess, Columbia, Delaware) to offset the North. However, the major problem is that there aren't enough votes down there. Warren is the second most populated county in the district. (Saratoga is the largest and also hasn't been too hospitable to Democrats) There is simply no way you can win without making a serious dent in Sweeney's base up in the north.
Sweeney has already been making many trips and appearances to Warren County. He knows the Democrats/Gillibrand aren't spending much time up there and is already mobilizing his North Country base. If you read any of the North Country papers, Sweeney face is constantly in the papers, but you rarely ever here any mention of Gillibrand (or the other Democratic opponents).
I hope between now and November the Democrats finally become aware of their North Country problem and do something to erode away at Sweeney's base in Warren County.
posted by Colin Neal at 9:23 PM
2 Comments:
Mr. Neal is correct on this point. In 1998, Jean Bordewich, our Congressional candidate that year, opened up a campaign headquarters in Warren County and came the closest of anyone to date of beating John Sweeney. Ms. Bordewich received 42% of the overall vote. With more funding she possibly would have won.
I took special note of this in 2004 when I elected to open a campaign office in Fort Edward (Washington County) right across the river from Glens Falls. Warren County Chair Bill Monfort had advised me about the success Jean had had by giving Warren and Washington some attention. I'm glad I took his advice. The response was pretty amazing. Only wish I'd made it to the primary that year.
So, I agree that much more attention must be paid to this part of the District not because of some theory but because in 1998 it did make a difference and it would again.
Morris Guller
Morris,
I went back and did some research. Amazingly, Warren was Bordewich's best county in 1998 and was only one of two counties (the other being Washington) where she defeated Mr. Sweeney. Bordewich got 10,880 votes to Sweeney's 8,021 in Warren.
Fast forward six years later, in 2004, Warren was Sweeney's best county where he took 71% percent of the vote.
Just shows the difference between when you put some effort into winning an area and when you don't.
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